April 20, 2026: As of 13 April, the American President ordered that all ships in Iranian ports will be subjected to the blockade. Non-Iranian ships will have until 1400 UTC on 13 April to vacate Iranian ports. After that ships are subject in interception, diversion or capture. Ships sailing to other nations in the Gulf will be permitted, along with humanitarian shipments, but subject to inspection.

With the end of the Iran war earlier this month, Kharg Island was no longer a target for Israeli and American attacks. Kharg is the same size as Iwo Jima, the Pacific Island American forces fought a fierce battle to conquer. Kharg is 32 kilometers off the Iranian coast and is currently guarded by detachments of the fanatical IRGC\Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Negotiation over Kharg included reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Oil facilities on Kharg currently handle up to 90 percent of Iranian oil exports. American threats to destroy or occupy Kharg Island were a major factor in Iran calling for a ceasefire and negotiations.

Sixteen years ago, Iran carried out wargames simulating a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. During these exercises Iran demonstrated the capabilities of its Persian Gulf naval forces. Iran was trying to demonstrate the consequences of a military strike on Persian Gulf oil facilities. Even if Iran were able to dominate the Gulf, with the Strait of Hormuz closed, Iranian oil shipments would also be blocked.

If Iran attempted to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, the US and NATO would likely respond with their own blockade. The U.S. possesses a superior fleet, so it would be highly unlikely for Iran to eliminate the American fleet and its blockade. Immediately, all trade both ways through the Strait of Hormuz would be stopped.

Iran could never afford such an action. Iran’s largest ports, Kharg Island and Lavan Island and Bandar Abbas, are all in the Persian Gulf. The only exit out of the Persian Gulf is through the Strait of Hormuz. This is where most of Iran’s trade flows to the sea.

Crude oil makes up 90 percent of Iran’s exports. Since both of Iran’s largest oil export ports are in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s exports would shrink drastically. Iran would be unable to ship oil. On top of that, Iran’s fleet of supertankers would be confined to the inner Persian Gulf. These large ships, which contribute a significant amount to the Iranian economy, could not break the U.S. blockade.

Even worse, the U.S. would likely pressure its allies in the Middle East to stop trading with Iran. Two countries that would likely cooperate would be Afghanistan and Iraq, which Iran exports over $5 billion worth of goods to. If the US offered incentives and gained the support of the UN, other nations, Iran also might halt their trade.

Iran has made several critical errors. Not only has it relied on one resource for the most of its exports, but it also has relied on only a few trade routes; Iran relies too much on the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, a blockade against the Strait of Hormuz, combined with cutting off some of the trade between Iran and its neighbors, would strike a devastating blow to Iran’s economy. The economic downturn in Iran would likely cause both internal strife and a decrease in military spending that would weaken Iran’s blockade. Blocking the Strait of Hormuz, which 40 percent of the world’s oil flows through, may seem like a solid strategy, but in fact it has several flaws. Hopefully Iran will consider the economic consequences of closing the Strait of Hormuz.